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LET'S TALK ABOUT YOU(TH)!

2026 middle-school pilot · student pre/post questionnaire · first quantitative look · internal working draft
7classes: 2 Interv. Brașov, 3 Interv. Voluntari, 2 Control
143matched pre+post pairs
Apr → Junbaseline → endline 2026
10 + 4pre/post items + endline experience items

1Who answered, class by class

Change over time uses matched pairs only — students with both questionnaires and ≥80% of items answered.

Every class kept at least 2 of 3 students as usable pairs. The constraint sits elsewhere: control is only 2 classes in one school. Any class-level event moves the control average a lot.
Administration context — read before interpreting any change
The endline questionnaire was administered in the first 10 minutes of the speech class, immediately before students delivered their speeches (half the class that day, half the following week). Two consequences: (1) intervention students rated items like "I can present my ideas convincingly" while waiting to perform — pre-performance nerves plausibly depress exactly the self-efficacy items; (2) the endline was measured before the program's culminating experience — the speech, the audience, the feedback. Whatever those moments change is not in this data at all.

2How students experienced the program

Four endline items, intervention group only (n ≈ 120). This is the most direct evidence the questionnaire produced — the quality of the civic learning experience itself, the program's core promise. Compare sites, or drill to a single class.

Share of valid answers · darker green = stronger agreement · the last item was asked in negative form ("I felt excluded or ignored") and is shown here recoded, with the statement rephrased to match

Does the experience relate to change?

Within the intervention group, students who rated the experience higher also increased more on belonging (r = , p = , n = ).

Correlational, not causal — but it is what a working mechanism looks like: where the program landed as intended, the outcome moved.

3Who moved: students who started with low belonging

Split at the overall baseline median (3.25). Left: among students who started below it, how many increased, held, or decreased? Right: the same intervention low-starters, split by whether they had any previous community experience (school activities or outside volunteering).

Change bands: increased = Δ > +0.1 · unchanged = ±0.1 · decreased = Δ < −0.1
Honest caveats: low starters rose in control too (regression to the mean works everywhere), and the prior-experience cells are small — read the right chart as a promising signal to verify in the qualitative data, not as proof. What the panel supports: the program did not leave its low-belonging students behind, and it appears to have reached precisely the students arriving with no community experience at all.

4Where each group started

Baseline mean per item (1–4). The groups did not start from the same place — which is why raw change comparisons mislead.

Intervention Brașov Intervention Voluntari Control
Control starts lowest on nearly every belonging and agency item. Lower starting points rise more on their own (regression to the mean), so raw change comparisons flatter the control group throughout.

5The ceiling problem

Share of students already at the maximum ("exactly like me") and at the minimum at baseline, per item. A student at the ceiling cannot show improvement no matter what the program does; a student at the floor cannot show decline.

Intervention Control
The two groups occupied opposite ends of the instrument: up to half of intervention students were already at the maximum on core items (nowhere to go but down), while up to a quarter of control students sat at the minimum (nowhere to go but up). This asymmetry alone can manufacture a "control improved more" pattern — and it caps what any pre/post comparison on this scale could ever show.

6What changed — belonging and the individual items

Belonging is the only defensible composite; the agency and cognitive items are shown one by one. Left: raw pre→post means per group. Right: each student's change against their starting point — students who started low rose, students who started high fell, in all three groups.

Interv. Brașov Interv. Voluntari Control · right: one dot = one student (jittered)
How much to trust these measures. Belonging (items 1, 2, 3, 10r): α = .68 pre / .69 post — usable with caution. Agency items 4–6 (α = .56) and cognitive items 7–9 (α = .37) don't hold together as scales — read item by item, as done here. The cognitive items mix three genuinely different skills; the low α is telling the truth, not malfunctioning. And the decisive number: with this reliability, an individual student must change more than ±1.08 points on the 1–4 scale before the change is distinguishable from measurement noise (reliable change index). Only ~5–7% of students in either group cross that bar — for everyone else, this instrument simply cannot say whether they changed. The pre/post strand is a measurement lesson for 2027, not an outcome measure.

7Item explorer

Full response distributions for any of the 10 pre/post items — Intervention Brașov, Intervention Voluntari, and Control side by side.

Share of valid answers (missing and "9 = unclear" excluded). Item 10 shown as answered (reversed wording): agreement there means disconnection.

8What we can and cannot say (so far)

For donors and the public, the story this data supports: roughly 8 out of 10 students experienced the program as a space where they could be sincere, felt heard, and saw the connection to their real lives (§2). The students who arrived with the least — low belonging, no prior community experience — moved most consistently upward (§3). And where the program landed as intended, belonging rose with it (§2).

We cannot say: that the program raised self-reported belonging or the agency/cognitive items relative to control. After adjusting for unequal starting points, the group difference is zero (§6).

We especially cannot say: that control did better. That pattern is an artifact: control started lower (§4), at the floor of the instrument while intervention sat at its ceiling (§5), low scores drift up on their own (§6), and intervention students filled in the endline minutes before performing (§1).

The measurement lesson, stated plainly: the questionnaire could not have detected the program's effect on self-beliefs even if it occurred — too little response room, too few items, endline before the culminating experience. For 2027: harder items, wider response scales, behavior-frequency questions, a retrospective-pre block, endline after the speeches. The proximal layer — experience quality, speeches, observations, interviews — is where this evaluation's evidence lives.